NZ Defence Planning 2025
Identifying Security Risks & Shaping New Zealand’s Defence Response
After nearly 80 years of peace, New Zealand is entering a new security era
After 80 years of peace, New Zealand now has to acclimatise itself to a new epoch — a scene into which a new expansionist, if not aggressive, world power has broken into the South Pacific in the form of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA). That there is an awareness in New Zealand of the security risks of the new era is supported by the fact that a 2025 poll showed that about half of New Zealanders supported increased defence expenditure, with 31% being opposed.
Again, in response to elevated national security concerns, in 2025 the government released its Defence Capability Plan, which revealed it intends to spend $12 billion over four years, with $9 billion being an increase to baseline defence spending.
Defending NZ has been established to clarify and inform New Zealanders about the threats New Zealand faces, where they come from, and how they are to be countered.
About Defending NZ
Defending NZ is an independent platform focused on New Zealand’s national security strategy, military preparedness, and evolving defence policy. Our mission is to scrutinise and provide evidence-based analysis — which would otherwise be lacking — in order to separate genuine threats from those overstated or politically motivated. We also assess and comment on the effectiveness of government defence plans and investments.
We focus on:
Analysing the Defence Capability Plan 2025 and its strategic implications
Monitoring New Zealand’s defence spending and national capability development
Evaluating the effectiveness of military preparedness and response planning
Providing independent, evidence-based analysis that separates real risks from political noise
Supporting informed public conversation on New Zealand’s defence priorities
New Zealand Servicemen, Anzac Day Parade, London, 1916
Articles
New Zealand’s defence strategy is entering a critical new phase. Our blog series delivers a detailed analysis of the country’s response to emerging South Pacific security threats — from geopolitical shifts to military spending and strategic capability.
This series explores how the 2025 Defence Capability Plan addresses rising risks, including the expanding presence of China in the region, and what it means for the future of New Zealand’s national security.
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Part 1: NZ’s Strategic Risks
Every year, thousands of New Zealanders turn out for Anzac Day commemorations, reflecting national pride and gratitude for the military contributions of earlier generations. In 2025, attendance at the Auckland ceremony alone was estimated at 15,000. Some doubt that a new generation may have to go to war. Others believe that a future conflict is […]
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Part 2: Does China pose a risk and how should New Zealand respond?
While it might seem obvious, before New Zealand can start to sensibly plan how it can defend itself, it needs to ask and answer the question, “What country could be a military threat to New Zealand?” Many New Zealanders would respond by identifying China as a threat. The author believes that China is the only […]
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Part 3: Specific ways in which the risk could materialise
In an attempt to illustrate why a confrontation between China and New Zealand is imaginable, some different scenarios will be reviewed. Taiwan? There is a risk that hostilities could break out between the two prime protagonists who are concerned with Taiwan, namely China and the United States. Rather than launching an outright invasion, many experts […]